(anime and manga spoilers)
(for context, I’ve only watched the anime)
(”Marinette” is short for Marie Antoinette)
Bottom line up front: Oscar X Marinette OTP.
Despite the canonical pairings of Marinette/Fersen and Oscar/Andre, the romance between Oscar/Marinette represents the “good ending.” Yes, it’s a common shoujo trope for the female cast to swoon over the princely female knight, and Marinette is subject to this as much as any schoolgirl. But the narrative of The Rose of Versailles leads us to the junction where Marinette choosing Oscar would forgo the tragedy that befalls her and leads to her execution (and Oscar’s death).
TL;DR French Revolution. Wealth inequality. Taxation without representation. Political stagnancy and leaders who imposed martial law in Paris at the first sign of reform. Centered on the extreme excesses of Versailles, enabled by an impressionable teen queen Marie Antoinette. One bloody war and some smooth talking by Robespierre later, and France is fixed.
A number of the story arcs in The Rose of Versailles anime highlight the scandals, with Marinette at the center, which exposed and cemented the corruption of the bourgeoisie, in reality and in the eyes of the French commoners. Bookmarking each of these scandals was a confrontation between Oscar and Marinette, where Marinette’s actions and influences are brought into question, and she had an opportunity to pull back.
The Five Events:
(1) Marinette Spends Frivolously and Shirks Responsibilities (part 1)
Marie Antoinette, newly queen at the age of 18, very quickly picks up the habit of repeated spending with a couture dressmaker (with taxpayer money). She also immediately entertains the option of skipping out on appearing for public audiences. The bad influences here are Duke Guemenee and Marinette herself, and after a dispute between Oscar and Guemenee, Marinette upholds her responsibilities and sides with Oscar.
(Episode 12/Chapter 11)
(2) The Illegal Gambling Ring and Fake Pregnancy
Madame Polignac convinces Marinette to appease her boredom with gambling (with taxpayer money) and to appease the rumors of the court at Versaille by announcing a fake pregnancy and, later, miscarriage. Marinette, however, eventually gives up the habit, at the advice of Oscar and Count de Mercy, as she sides with Oscar in the social encounter between Oscar/Rosalie vs Polignac/Charlotte.
(Episode 15/Chapters 11, 15)
(3) The Fersen Love Affair and Love Triangle
Fersen return to Versailles and announces his engagement to a Swedish noblewoman. The court is abuzz with rumors of the Marinette/Fersen affair, and Paris is flooded with pornographies depicting just that. Fersen, an enabler and romantic, gives in to Marinette’s every whim. Oscar confronts her about the scandal and ultimately steps in Fersen’s way to be Marinette’s dance partner at the ball. This results in a temporary pause to the romance.
(Episode 20, Chapters 17-18)
(4) Marinette Retreat to Summer Home and Shirks Responsibilities (part 2)
Marie Antoinette steps away from public life and her queenly duties to raise her children at the royal private villa (Petit Trianon), accompanied by Madame Polignac and others. Oscar insists that she resume her duties and build her public presence, but finally relents to the domestic bliss of Marinette’s happiness and her young children.
(Chapter 20)
(5) Arcadia Bay, or “I’m Dying of Consumption”
Paris is under martial law, Oscar is captain of the French Guard, and she makes a final visit to Marinette to beseech that she withdraw the military and not slaughter her own citizens. In the anime, this is depicted as a personal rejection of Oscar as Marinette stays the course. In the manga, Marie Antoinette is focused on villainizing the Third Estate (commoner contingency of the Estates General congress) and embraces her sin of pride as Queen and Noble.
(Episode 36/Volume 8)
The Point?
The tragedy of Marie Antoinette follows from a series of decisions on her part. In The Rose of Versailles these all also correspond with the personal rejection of Oscar.
Fersen was the weak-willed version of Oscar, who never truly pushed back against Marinette. Oscar was indulgent, as well, for a time, and the real divergence from Marinette is marked when she left the Royal Guard to join the French Guard. The point of highlighting the earlier confrontation scenes, as well, is to show that even when there were no obstacles between Marinette and Oscar, Marinette still chose to be surrounded by bad influences and never fully commit to Oscar.
In a way, the final confrontation is as simple as a yes/no question, the outcome of which would supersede everything that’s happened up to this point (the reason I liken it to the conclusion of Life is Strange). In the anime depiction it’s as simple as, withdraw troops from Paris, accept Oscar’s love, and happily ever after (Oscar also surviving tuberculosis because she doesn’t have to fight in a Revolution).
On the other hand, Marie Antoinette’s story in The Rose of Versailles is a tragedy. Oscar’s final offer of redemption (and love) being rejected is fulfills the narrative. Marinette loves Fersen. She frivolously spends the taxpayer’s money on dresses and card games and court favors and military promotions. She neglects her governmental functions. She embraces ignorance towards the struggles and please of Parisian and French commoners. And she rejects Oscar.